Elk Calf Survival and Elk Population Dynamics in the Southern Bitterroot Valley

摘要: In response to declining elk calf recruitment in the southern Bitterroot Valley of Montana, we initiated a 3-year study determine importance bottom-up and top-down factors for survival population dynamics. We monitored 286 calves during 2011-2014 order estimate cause-specific mortality age 1.We used continuous-time modeling evaluate effect risk covariates rates. Annual was 0.32 2011, 0.43 2012, 0.45 2013. found that mountain lions (20%) were most important source calves, followed by unknown causes (17%), predation (9%), bear (5%), natural, non-predation (4%), wolf (3%), human-related (1%). Male at 63% higher than females (P = 0.01), West Fork area 42% compared East 0.07) their first year. Also, detected significant positive estimated birth date on summer 0.07). will use integrated combine adult female survival, nutrition, carnivore data, allowing us forecast habitat densities trends. These tools may help managers balance ungulate objectives is applicable all areas experiencing recovery.