Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change

摘要: Aim Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species’ distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence newly areas outside present distributions. Each these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We an analytical framework for examining projections climate change-induced reference that are likely mediate responses, illustrate the applicability framework. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods applied 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians both available bioclimatic envelope model mid-21st century trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each projected losses, gains we selected potential response-mediating examined spatial overlap vulnerability due traits. all individually groups different combinations opportunities. Results In Congo Basin arid Southern Africa, losses wide-ranging compounded by sensitivity variation, expected precluded poor dispersal ability. The between exposure was more pronounced have their space contracting situ or shifting distant geographical Our results exclude shrinking climates tropical mountains. Main conclusions application a combining responses. Although proposed carries several assumptions require further scrutiny, its adds degree realism familiar assessments consider be equally affected