Modeling Macro Scale Disaster Risk: The CATSIM Model

摘要: Developing countries are placing increasing emphasis on improving their preparedness for and management of disaster risk. We discuss the CATSIM (CATastropheSIMulation) model developed at IIASA assistance in such planning exercises. represents a simple but risk-based economic framework evaluating impacts, costs benefits measures reducing those impacts. uses stochastic simulation risks specified region examines ability government private sector to finance relief recovery. The is interactive sense that user can change parameters test different assumptions about hazards, exposure, vulnerability, general conditions government’s respond. As capacity building tool it illustrate tradeoffs choices authorities confronted with resilience impacts catastrophic events. be used supporting policy processes allocation resources between ex-ante spending risk (such as prevention, national reserve funds, sovereign insurance) ex-post reconstruction. Our paper describes key features mechanics, sets stage applications Nepal Hungary/Tisza cases discussed this volume.