From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health.

摘要: Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means normative settings assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation information target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for to avoid ambiguity applications the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) OSPAR are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed procedure available. The framework a functional-holistic comprising an ex-ante/ex-post with specifically defined systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). outer dimension defines framework, latter branch delivers one measure health based indicators former allows account multi-dimensional nature (social, economic, ecological) in terms modeling approaches. replaces current distinction between pressure state descriptors. ex-ante ex-post each comprise inner dimension. considers additive utility models likelihood functions standardize variables normalized Bayesian modeling. Likelihood allow precautionary posteriori selection analysis space redundant opposed priori deconstructive-structural Indicator expressed variability multivariate procedures. application southern North Sea showed, that selected 36 48% could be explained. Tools risk capability analyze trade-offs, generating model output chains phasing-out human pressures. sensitive trends environmental features, robust line models. combination essential evaluate adopt adaptive management. Based requirements approach, three possible developments this concept can envisioned, i.e. governance driven built upon participatory processes, science requiring extensive monitoring complete variability, emphasis well-studied subsystems.