Modeling the Economics and Market Adoption of Distributed Power Generation

摘要: After decades of power generating units increasing in size, there is currently a growing focus on distributed generation, generation close to energy loads. Investments large-scale have been driven by economy scale, but recent technological improvements small plants made it possible exploit the benefits local larger extent than previously. Distributed can improve system efficiency because heat be recovered from thermal supply and thermally activated cooling, small-scale renewables promising end-user market. Further include improved reliability, deferral often controversial costly grid investments reduction losses. The new appeal means that need for tools analyze both perspective potential developers. In this thesis, value end-users. thesis identifies how an find optimal systems investment strategies under variety economic regulatory scenarios. final part extends analysis with bottom-up model economics representative set building types transfer technology diffusion market.Four separate research papers make up thesis. first paper, Optimal Investment Strategies Decentralized Renewable Power Generation Uncertainty, method evaluation renewable price uncertainty presented. It assumed developer has electricity load resource. case study compares wind different capacity finds depends uncertain prices significant postponing until projects are profitable. second Combined Heat Commercial Buildings: Risk Analysis, Monte Carlo simulation program risk characteristics combined Using historical data estimate process parameters, shown should not barrier investment, since on-site generators adapt reduce total cost risks. In, Optimizing Systems Buildings, which uses mixed integer linear program, portfolios maximize profitability tailored building's load. recovery cooling found profitable office health care building, using current generator tariffs California. With fourth Energy Resources Market Diffusion Model, taken step further predict market diffusion. penetration depend attractiveness knowledge trust technologies. A based U.S. commercial sector depicts large reciprocating engines microturbines, West Northeast regions driving Technology outreach programs speed change path expansion.The presents three models analyzing all disadvantages. Choice specific application, approaches used same problem viewpoints. cases indicate expected costs while at time predictability. Further, several important factors barriers adoption. Analyzing also policy makers, importance estimating will react measures. shows increase near future. understanding environmental issues related makers aim construct implement measures attractive end-users invest efficient capacity.