Analysis and prediction of breast cancer incidence trend in China

摘要: Objective Based on the registered female breast cancer data from 1998 to 2007,to analyze incidence of during period and then predict its trend 2008 2015.Methods The 2007 were sorted National Cancer Registry Database,including 74 936 cases urban areas 8230 rural areas,separately covering 164 830 893 55 395 229 person years.The crude rates in calculated, age-standardized rate (ASR) was adjusted by World Segi's population composition.JoinPoint software applied 10 years' calculated annual percentage changing (APC),while Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model used fit between 2015.Results From 2007,the registration 45.46/100 000 (74 936/164 ),whose ASR 31.28/100 000.While areas,the 14,86/100 (8230/55 229) 12.13/100 000.The separately rose 36.17/100 ( 3920/10 838 355 ) 10.39/100 436/4 197 806 51.24/100 000( 11 302/22 057 787) 19.61/100 1475/7 522 690) 2007.During years,the increased both areas,but increase (6.3％ more significant than it (3.9％).Age-Period-Cohort predicted that would 53.87/100 185 585 new cases) 40.14/100 132 432 areas,respectively.Conclusion has been increasing annually China; an number have predicted. Key words: Breast neoplasms; Incidence; Prediction ; China