Modeling of energy transformation pathways under current policies, NDCs and enhanced NDCs to achieve 2-degree target
作者： Huan Wang , Wenying Chen
DOI: 10.1016/J.APENERGY.2019.05.009
关键词:
摘要: Abstract CO2 mitigation in the global energy system is critical tackling climate change, each region should design its long-term strategies and implement policies accordingly to promote transformation. To evaluate impacts of existing propose possible enhanced NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions), this paper applied a 14-region model explore transitions regional system. With modelling early late enhancing plan for 2-degree target, required transition was analyzed, together with vital challenges potential economic impacts. Model results show: 1. Existing can reduce annual emission growth rate 0.6% 2015 – 2020, while their influence on limited; 2. If begin from 2030 onwards after realizing current goals, target would become quite challenging later period, some regions will have cut service drastically; 3. assumption enhancement free carbon trading cost-optimal plan, total cost could be reduced by 10% 2050, compared former plan; 4. Under developing may face great short medium term, 122% additional investment put power sector 2030, international support both technology finance essential.
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