Do species distribution models predict species richness in urban and natural green spaces? A case study using amphibians

摘要: Abstract Urban green spaces are potentially important to biodiversity conservation because they could provide patches of high quality habitat or connectivity nearby habitat. Presence-only species distribution models (SDMs) represent a potential tool for assessing the value urban space; however, there is limited research validate SDM results with field surveys see if predictions accurately observed richness. We generated range SDMs using multiple suitability thresholds 23 amphibians that occur in southwest, Ohio, USA. The distributions were overlaid enumerate surveyed 20 sites amphibian evaluate model predictions. Our over-predicted richness relative survey data. For example, we mean pairwise difference 14 between and values. suggest either built landscape variables selected did not richness, detect all present. Analyzing had more than three sampling events suggests explanation inadequate effort only partially correct. Differences such as predicted values challenge land managers biologists need modeling biodiversity. Species project well non-urban space, which this technique offers spatially explicit way identify rich areas may help manage systems greater efficiency.