Accounting for observation reliability when inferring extinction based on sighting records

摘要: Given the current increase in global extinction risk of species, methods that are able to estimate probability and time based on a sighting record rare or poorly studied species becoming increasingly important. One major obstacles when using such is many records burdened with uncertain controversial observations. What accepted as valid can have substantial effect resulting predictions. Here we present simple modification an existing method allows for inclusion specific reliabilities individual observations into predictions likelihood extinction. The approach applied four presumably extinct bird species. Results indicated Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) Eskimo Curlew (Numenius borealis) may be considered extinct, even recent sightings included analysis. Nukupu`u (Hemignathus lucidus) O`ahu `Alauahio (Paroreomyza maculata) could potentially still extant, although low persistence. advantage presented that, instead applying some arbitrary threshold reliability acceptable, it recognizes incorporates each observation predictions, by estimating most likely number last observation. Its simplicity facilitates its application assessments larger populations, makes accessible decision tool.