Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy.

摘要: Abstract The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, point consists in determining projected changes duration amounts that can initiate slope failures. We investigated relationship fine-scale projections obtained by downscaling expected modifications landslide occurrence Central Italy. used measurements taken 56 rain gauges 9-year period 2003–2011, RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic fields from regional model for 14-year calibration 2002–2015, 40-year projection 2010–2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted number events, i.e. periods separated dry no or negligible amount rain, measured series. Then, selected events forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. analyzed results terms variations (or lack variations) thresholds possible initiation probability distribution size (area), hazard. Results showed be single out force model. further while are future scenarios, areas not. infer hazard study area is response conditions. expect our contribute investigations impact conditions hazards.