A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France

摘要: Abstract Tactical adjustments to seasonal weather conditions and beef price may generate additional income or avoid losses in French cattle farms. Due the length of suckler cow production cycle, adjustment decisions impact not only on current profit but also future farm outcomes. To better understand consequences shocks subsequent evolution earnings over time, we built a dynamic recursive bio-economic model. Our model introduced simultaneously possibility adjusting herd size composition, diet composition energy content, as well crop rotation, haymaking feed stocks, taking into account both their short- long-term consequences. An application is provided test impacts yield different intensities. Main simulated face unfavourable are (1) purchased order maintain animal objectives, (2) area pasture harvested for haymaking. Very severe induce forced sales. Weather affect net year following years. Profit caused by compensated gains favourable ones this differential amplified when intensity rises.