Improving Energy Transition Analysis Tool through Hydropower Statistical Modelling

摘要: Reservoir and pumped hydro storage facilities represent one of the best options for providing flexibility at low marginal cost very life cycle carbon emissions. However, hydropower generation is subject to physical, environmental regulatory constraints, which introduce complexity in modelling context transition energy analysis. In this article, a probabilistic model developed order improve an hourly-resolved tool path analysis presented previous research. The based on time series analysis, exploits fact that different constraints affecting were met past. upgraded version shows decrease as compared with published results, better picture benefits drawbacks associated specific under example terms assessing probability unserved energy. was employed analyse Spanish National Energy Climate Plan (NECP), finding consistence between proposals power system related CO2 reduction share renewable electricity targets.