Resilience to Global Food Supply Catastrophes Environment, Systems, and Decisions 35(2): 301-313. This version dated 17 June 2015.

摘要: Many global catastrophic risks threaten major disruption to food supplies, including nuclear wars, volcanic eruptions, asteroid and comet impacts, plant disease outbreaks. This paper discusses options for increasing the resilience of supplies these risks. In contrast with local catastrophes, supply catastrophes cannot be addressed via aid from external locations. Three are identified: stockpiles, agriculture, foods produced alternative (non-sunlight) energy sources biomass fossil fuels. Each three has certain advantages disadvantages. Stockpiles versatile but expensive. Agriculture is efficient less viable in catastrophe scenarios. Alternative inexpensive pre-catastrophe need scaled up post-catastrophe may face issues social acceptability. The optimal portfolio will typically include some each, additionally vary by location as regions population access input resources. Furthermore, if shuts down transportation, then requires self-sufficiency food. Food not just itself, also accompanying systems production distribution. Overall, can play an important role risk reduction. However, it unwise attempt maximizing resilience, because doing so comes at expense other objectives, prevention. Taking all into account, proposes a research agenda analysis specific decisions.