Simulating a Land Development Planning Process through Agent-Based Modeling

摘要: Like most urban centers in North America, the City of Calgary has been experiencing steady population and unprecedented land-cover growth over past six decades due to strong Alberta economy, natural increase, net migration (City 2009). Between 1951 1961 exploded by 93% from 129,060 249,641 inhabitants city’s jurisdiction swelled 276% 104 392 km2. In each decade since, increased approximately 35% current 1,043,000 municipal lands have expanded 14% area 745 km2 (Applied History Research Group 1997-2001; 2008). The Calgary’s “Population Picture” predicts a 1.6 million 2037 just fewer than two 22nd century If these predictions are correct planning land development decisions continue be made based on policy developers’ self-interest, will sprawl housing costs climb. This competition cost increase for within force young families unable afford house city purchase outside commute their place employment. It also encourages retirees wanting get away move out country. creates demands towns located vicinity accommodate this migration. is case Town Strathmore, at about 40 km east Trans-Canada Highway. currently 11,335 covers 15.5 expected reach 56,731 2056 cover 26.8 km2, an 38% 12% per (Brown Associates Planning Several environmental, social economic problems associated growth, including: (a) demand resources such as water; (b) intensity use land; (c) change settlement patterns; (d) interaction, conflict or required cooperation with adjacent municipalities; (e) existing infrastructure, roads, utility distribution, collection treatment facilities; (f) new infrastructure like utilities, schools, other community (g) environmental ground, water air pollution; (h) health emergency costs. Some can avoided;