Nonlinear production path and an alternative reserves estimate for South Asian natural gas

摘要: Abstract Natural gas is a finite resource that may be estimated directly, through geophysical methodologies, or indirectly, historical production data. The rapid growth in consumption of this limited natural resource, strictly connected to the oil economy, lead its imminent depletion and related economic crisis. transition new based on renewable sustainable energy resources, crucial challenge for next decades at world regional levels, with different dynamics. Therefore, an accurate forecast availability important ensure policy, providing essential information about timing transition. Postulating life cycle recoverable paper we investigate four neighboring South Asian states: Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan. We use number homogeneous diffusion models, convenient extensions, check model validation terms prediction capability. results indicate India Myanmar have already extracted more than 50% their ultimately resources (URR), whereas good prospects extraction remain near future Bangladesh states can build power reserve system meet increasing demand within medium-term horizon. Some further policy implications are also suggested paper.