Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation

摘要: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present numerical program that calculates leakage the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates geological subsurface retention, surface leakage. We calculate realistically well-regulated regions with moderate well densities has 50% probability below 0.0008% per year, 98% injected retained An unrealistic scenario, where is inadequately regulated, more than 78% will be Our modelling results suggest secure climate change mitigation option, but note long-term behaviour key uncertainty.