Ecological niche modeling of Aedes mosquito vectors of chikungunya virus in southeastern Senegal

摘要: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) originated in a sylvatic cycle of transmission between non-human animal hosts and vector mosquitoes the forests Africa. Subsequently jumped out this ancestral into human-endemic vectored by anthropophilic mosquitoes. Sylvatic CHIKV cycles persist Africa continue to spill over humans, creating potential for new strains enter transmission. To mitigate such spillover, it is first necessary delineate distributions mosquito vectors CHIKV, identify environmental factors that shape these distributions, determine association presence with key drivers including abundance. We therefore modeled distribution seven two sequential rainy seasons Kedougou, Senegal using Maxent. Mosquito data were collected fifty sites distributed five land cover classes across study area. Environmental representing cover, topographic, climatic included models. Models compared evaluated area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) statistics. The correlation model outputs abundance individual species as well CHIKV-positive pools was tested. Fourteen models produced evaluated; variables most strongly associated distance large patches forest, landscape patch size, rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Seven positively correlated one (Aedes taylori) consistently, pools. Eight predicted high relative occurrence rates near villages Tenkoto Ngary, areas highest frequency Of considered here, fragmentation configuration had strongest influence on distributions. modeled, Ae. taylori suggesting will be useful predictor presence.