Ecological Niche Modeling Identifies Fine-Scale Areas at High Risk of Dengue Fever in the Pearl River Delta, China

摘要: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most common and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral diseases in tropical subtropical regions. In recent years, this imported disease has posed a serious threat to public health China, especially Pearl River Delta (PRD). Although severity DF outbreaks PRD generally associated with known risk factors, fine scale assessments areas at high for are limited. We built five ecological niche models identify such including variety climatic, environmental, socioeconomic variables, as well as, some models, extracted principal components. All we tested accurately identified DF, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were greater than 0.8, but model using all original variables was accurate (AUC = 0.906). Socioeconomic had impact on (total contribution 55.27%) climatic environmental 44.93%). found highest border Guangzhou Foshan (in central PRD), northern Zhongshan southern PRD). Our fine-scale results may help agencies focus epidemic monitoring tightly outbreaks.