An assessment of the uncertainty involved in predictions of energy consumption and carbon emissions from future fully-electrified aircraft

摘要: Previous work has shown that, by using future low-carbon electricity for electrolysis, hydrogen fuel cells could be a candidate passenger airplane concepts. This conclusion was reached conducting an optimization procedure where the total mass and volume of aircraft were considered to be, at most, same as today's aircraft, but propulsion system energy carrier took up different amount volume. However, such optimized conceptual designs resulting estimates overall consumption carbon dioxide emissions, well maximum range rely on various inputs component efficiencies that have large uncertainty. To identify most sensitive components, Monte Carlo simulation undertaken in this paper, 2038 liquified Boeing 787–8 Cessna 172 models examples civil small short-range aircraft. It found emissions grid, per unit tank, cell efficiency are input parameters produce largest uncertainty design. Therefore, research development into these their associated components is especially important. A new estimate obtained each travel half conventional There 95% probability between 1846 km 15800 415 4571 km. Although high, both play key role aviation system. Even if they only able far lower predicted range, still fill important niches within industry.