Probabilistic spinning reserve adequacy evaluation for generating systems using an Markov chain Monte Carlo-integrated cross-entropy method

摘要: Spinning reserve plays an important role in balancing generation and demand mismatch within a short time interval. Probabilistic spinning adequacy evaluation (PSRAE) is useful to aid operators monitoring the of system upward exposed unforeseen disturbances making risk-adverse decisions for unit dispatching. As period, example, 30 s–15 min, usually considered PSRAE, generating question commonly high reliability, which renders naive non-sequential Monte Carlo methods inefficient. In this study, reliability phenomenon systems explained through toy case thereafter, aiming develop efficient method simulation based on cross-entropy has been widely applied many areas improve tackling rare-event issues, integrated with Markov chain proposed. The indices loss load probability expected not supplied are used quantify inadequacy risk. Through studies conducted RTS-79, usefulness PSRAE discussed proposed proven be superior classical thus could taken as candidate tool practical systems.