Past, Present, and Future of Engineering under Uncertainty: Safety Assessment and Management

摘要: The author’s perspective of engineering under uncertainty is presented. In the first part this chapter, past, present, and future trends reliability assessment methods, applicable to many branches engineering, are discussions cover cases for both explicit implicit limit state functions. Finite element-based evaluation methods large structures satisfying underlying physics emphasized. necessity estimating risks strength serviceability states documented. Concept several energy dissipation mechanisms recently introduced improve performance reduce risk during seismic excitations can be explicitly incorporated in formulation. Reliability very requiring over hours continuous running a computer one deterministic briefly Since major sources cannot completely eliminated from analysis design an system, needs managed appropriately. Risk management context decision framework also discussing directions, use artificial neural networks soft computing, incorporation cognitive uncertainty, developing necessary programs, education-related issues discussed.