Reconciling Past and Future Rainfall Trends over East Africa

摘要: AbstractThe “long rains” season of East Africa has recently experienced a series devastating droughts, whereas the majority climate models predict increasing rainfall for coming decades. This been termed African paradox and implications developing viable adaptation policies. A logical framework is adopted that leads to six key hypotheses could explain this paradox. The first hypothesis recent observed trend due poor quality data promptly rejected. An initial judgment on second projected founded modeling beyond scope single study. Analysis natural variability suggests unlikely have dominant driver although it may contributed. next two explore whether balance between competing forcings be changing. Regarding possibility past changing anthropogenic aerosol emissions, resul...