Human-induced land degradation dominance in the Nigerian Guinea savannah between 2003 – 2018

摘要: Abstract Land degradation poses a persistent challenge to ecosystems and sustainable livelihoods in the Nigerian Guinea Savannah (NGS). While both human activity climate variability have been implicated as drivers, lack of research fuels dispute over causes status land Savannah. Detailed evidence on contributions rainfall activities can, however, help identify appropriate measures address degradation. MODIS vegetation “greenness” TAMSAT data were employed achieve following objectives: (i) provide empirical insights pattern savannah dynamics; (ii) control for effects degradation; (iii) characterize extent, severity geography human-induced The selected statistical techniques proved useful highlighting spatio-temporal dynamics NGS. Controlling effect greenness produces Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) residual that allows us estimate impact Despite no indication worsening regime, inter-annual variation exhibits consistently negative, declining trend. This continuous, trend NDVI strongly suggests ongoing biomass loss NGS is result unsustainable activity. Observed improvement attributable existing management programmes (afforestation planting drought tolerant species) initiated by states zone. In sum, approximately 38% area, including protected areas such Kainji Lake National Park, are becoming more degraded, while 14% 48% remaining area shows either or real change, respectively. These results serve baseline information resource tracking future use activities, potential pathways achieving management.