Combining Magma Flow and Deformation Modeling to Explain Observed Changes in Tilt

摘要: The understanding of magma ascent dynamics is essential in forecasting the scale, style and timing volcanic eruptions. monitoring near-field deformation widely used to gain insight into these dynamics, has been linked stress changes upper conduit. through conduit exerts shear on wall, pulling up surrounding edifice, whilst overpressure pushes edifice outwards. H\sout{owever, h}ow much pressure produced during ascent, relative contribution each deformation, \sout{is yet be fully understood quantified}\textcolor{blue}{has until now only explored conceptually}. By combining flow modelling using COMSOL Multiphysics, we \sout{are} for first time \sout{able to}\textcolor{blue}{present a quantitative model that links deformation. We} quantify how both vary spatially within conduit, show generally dominates observed tilt close activity at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, between 2013 2014. However, not insignificant, \sout{the full tensor comprising} must considered when interpreting data. We demonstrate significant \sout{can occur as refills an empty or} can driven by driving gradient or volatile content magma. varies considerably depending parameters. Our work provides range elastic moduli should edifice-scale rock masses, even where modelled weak, \textcolor{blue}{generally} near field over pressurisation