Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures

摘要: Summary While twentieth century sea-level rise was dominated by thermal expansion of ocean water, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets is now a larger annual contributor. There uncertainty on how will respond to further warming, however, reducing confidence in twenty-first projections. In 2019, address the uncertainty, Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) reported that 1950s levels would likely be within 0.61–1.10 m if warming exceeds 4°C 2100. The IPCC acknowledged greater increases were possible through mechanisms not fully incorporated models used assessment. this perspective, we discuss challenges faced projecting change why IPCC's range for 2100 under strong focused at low end outcomes. We argue outcomes above are far more probable than below it decision makers may benefit reframing terminology avoid unintentionally masking worst-case scenarios.