Carbon overhead: The impact of the expansion in low-carbon electricity in China 2015–2040

摘要: China has embarked on a massive program of low-carbon electricity (LE) deployment, in order to reduce its current dependence coal. The cumulative installed capacity LE 2015 was almost four times that 2002. Moreover, target 20% for non-fossil fuels primary energy consumption by 2030. provides substantial carbon savings the use phase, but infrastructure tends require more materials than their fossil-fuel counterpart. Here we estimate ‘overhead’ from expansion during China's transition LE. We report estimates learning curves intensity installation, calculated regional historical data period 2002–2012. combine this information with predicted well-known scenarios national and international bodies. then project trends impacts investments up 2040. Our results show that, under all every year, annual impact never exceeds 4% total emissions, either steady decline or peak 2030–2035 before declining further. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd