Projecting Land-Use Change and Its Consequences for Biodiversity in Northern Thailand

摘要: Rapid deforestation has occurred in northern Thailand over the last few decades and it is expected to continue. The government implemented conservation policies aimed at maintaining forest cover of 50% or more promoting agribusiness, forestry, tourism development region. goal this paper was analyze likely effects various directions on Specific objectives were (1) forecast land-use change patterns across region based three scenarios, (2) consequences for biodiversity, (3) identify areas most susceptible future high biodiversity loss. study combined a dynamic model (Dyna-CLUE) with assessment (GLOBIO3). Dyna-CLUE used determine spatial scenarios. methodology developed Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework (GLOBIO 3) estimate intactness expressed as remaining relative mean species abundance (MSA) original their primary vegetation. results revealed that 2050 would mainly persist west upper north region, which rugged not easily accessible. In contrast, highest occur lower north. MSA values decreased from 0.52 2002 0.45, 0.46, 0.48, respectively, scenarios 2050. addition, estimated area threat (an decrease >0.5) derived simulated maps approximately 2.8% trend scenario. high-threat covered 1.6 0.3% integrated-management conservation-oriented respectively. Based outcomes, measures recommended minimize impacts biodiversity. indicated only establishing fixed percentage efficient conserving Measures locations values, limited fragmentation, careful consideration road expansion pristine may be achieve conservation.