Winners and losers: Ecological and biogeochemical changes in a warming ocean

摘要: [1] We employ a marine ecosystem model, with diverse and flexible phytoplankton communities, coupled to an Earth system model of intermediate complexity explore mechanisms that will alter the biogeography productivity populations in warming world. Simple theoretical frameworks sensitivity experiments reveal ecological biogeochemical changes are driven by balance between two impacts climate: higher metabolic rates (the “direct” effect), supply limiting nutrients altered light environments (the “indirect” effect). On globally integrated productivity, effects compensate large degree. Regionally, competition is more complicated; patterns different high low latitudes also regulated how nutrient changes. These complex regional found broad functional groups. finer scale diversity within groups, we find ranges some types reduced, while those others (potentially minor players present ocean) expand. Combined change areal extent range regionally available leads global “winners losers.” The suggests strongest most robust signal ocean likely be turnover local community composition.