Seasonal associations of climatic drivers and malaria in the highlands of Ethiopia

摘要: The impacts of interannual climate fluctuations on vector-borne diseases, especially malaria, have received considerable attention in the scientific literature. These effects can be significant semi-arid and high-elevation areas such as highlands East Africa because cooler temperature seasonally dry conditions limit malaria transmission. Many previous studies examined short-term lagged (weeks to months), but fewer explored possibility longer-term seasonal effects. This study assessed variability occurrence from 2001 2009 Amhara region Ethiopia. We tested for associations variables summarized during (January–April), early transition (May–June), wet (July–September) seasons with incidence peak (May–July) late (September–December) epidemic using generalized linear models. Climate included land surface (LST), rainfall, actual evapotranspiration (ET), enhanced vegetation index (EVI). found that both had strongest meteorological preceding seasons. Temperature influence wetter western districts, whereas moisture drier eastern districts. also a correlation between subsquent seasons, addition predictor substantially improved models season sub-regions. findings suggest climatic prior main rainy carry over through affect probability epidemics peak. results emphasize value combining environmental monitoring epidemiological surveillance develop forecasts outbreaks, well need spatially stratified approaches reflect differential variations different