Inference and forecast of the current west african ebola outbreak in Guinea, sierra leone and liberia.

摘要: The current West African Ebola outbreak poses an unprecedented public health challenge for the world at large. response of global community to epidemic, including deployment nurses, doctors, epidemiologists, beds, supplies and security, is shaped by our understanding spatial-temporal extent progression disease. Ongoing evaluation epidemiological characteristics future course needed stay abreast any changes its transmission dynamics, as well success or failure intervention efforts. Here we use observations, dynamic modeling Bayesian inference generate simulations weekly forecasts outbreaks in Guinea, Liberia Sierra Leone. Estimates key over time indicate continued epidemic growth Africa, though there some evidence slowing Liberia. 6-week successive weeks corroborate these findings; projecting no change efficacy have been more accurate Guinea Leone, but overestimated incidence mortality Abstract