Bias in estimation of adult survival and asymptotic population growth rate caused by undetected capture heterogeneity

摘要: Summary 1. Mark–recapture studies are often used to estimate adult survival probability , which is an important demographic parameter for long-lived species, as it can have a large impact on the population growth rate. We consider of variation in capture among individuals (capture heterogeneity) estimation ϕ from mark–recapture study and thence asymptotic rate . 2. We review mechanisms by heterogeneity arises, methods allowing analysis, use simulation assess power detecting three types (two-group heterogeneity, trap-response temporary emigration) using standard lack-of-fit tests. 3. We bias that arise when we do not allow heterogeneity. Using generic model, effect this has . 4. We our results tests, together with measure size relative error ϕ, situations might lead level undetected bias. Our suggest likely be issue there trap-response, owing tests having sufficient detect any could non-negligible For two-group worst generally occurs difference between probabilities two groups moderate both low. emigration, emigration low. 5. We illustrate issues conservation management data Hector’s dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori) New Zealand wolves (Canis lupus) France. 6. Previous suggested will relatively small ϕ. However, given high sensitivity survival, nontrivial .