Quantifying the discharge forecast uncertainty by different approaches to probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast

作者: T. Diomede , C. Marsigli , F. Nerozzi , T. Paccagnella , A. Montani

DOI: 10.5194/ADGEO-7-189-2006

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摘要: Abstract. A probabilistic approach to flood prediction over the Reno river basin, a medium-sized catchment in Northern Italy, has been tested using two different meteorological ensemble systems. The future precipitation scenarios are provided either by an analogue-based technique (statistical approach) or limited-area system (dynamical approach), then used as inputs distributed rainfall-runoff model. of possible flows so generated allows convey quantification uncertainty about discharge forecast. forecasts, based on forecast ensembles, compared deterministic one obtained model fed input non-hydrostatic model, run at 7km horizontal resolution. For this case study, dynamical appears be more feasible providing useful than statistical one, because observed large spread among members with analogue method makes difficult issue real-time warnings.

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