Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management

摘要: Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates risk, including probability weighting aversion, in context using survey-based experiment administered federal Respondents were presented with multiattribute lottery-choice where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage private property, exposure of firefighters the aviation-related fatalities. choose one two strategies, which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) "bad" (high cost/high outcomes that occur varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing test whether about fatality alters managers' risk. Results suggest managers exhibit aversion nonlinear weighting, can result choices do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information tends reduce aviation fatalities, exacerbates weighting.