Peak Waste: When Is It Likely to Occur?

摘要: Population and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) projections are used to estimate total global municipal solid waste (MSW) generation over the twenty-first century. Some for population suggest that it will peak this Waste rates generally increase with affluence, although in most affluent countries there is also a trend toward dematerialization. The confluence of these factors means at some point future could possibly peak. To determine when might occur, we shared-socioeconomic pathway scenarios (used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] studies) combined estimates rates, extrapolated from our work World Bank. Despite expectation MSW Organisation Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) high-income mid-century, current trajectories not expected before 2100. be moved forward around 2075 reduced intensity by 30% if more aggressive sustainability growth scenario were followed, rather than business-as-usual scenario. Further, magnitude sensitive generation; vary 7.3 10.9 megatonnes day under timing substantially depend development cities Sub-Saharan Africa, where double rest world.