Hydrologic evaluation of spatially disaggregated global ensemble rainfall forecasts

摘要: A statistic–stochastic multi-fractal downscaling technique was evaluated from a hydrologic point of view. Ensemble forecasts with time step 3 h were performed for original and disaggregated ensemble rainfall issued by the Canadian Global Prediction System in its 2009 operational version. This hydro-meteorological forecasting chain conducted using hydrological model SWMM5. The implemented on small 6-km2 urban catchment located Quebec City region. evaluation based comparison forecasted flows to observed ones, calculating several deterministic probabilistic scores, drawing rank histograms reliability diagrams. Disaggregated products led better representation members' dispersion. disaggregation represents an interesting way bridging gap between meteorological models' resolution high degree spatial precision sometimes required models their precipitation representation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.