Strength in diversity? Past dynamics and future drivers affecting demand for sugar, ethanol, biogas and bioelectricity from Brazil's sugarcane sector

摘要: Abstract Brazil's sugarcane sector is a significant source of employment, and operates at the intersection energy, agriculture land use. Its future development will be affected by values, decisions actions key actors. Accordingly, we report on results qualitative semi-structured interviews with 19 participants expertise in relation to sector. We used visual aids, reflections past events, structure contextualise discussions about prospects for as whole, four its potential products – sugar, ethanol, electricity biogas. Interviews revealed general expectations continued growth sector, particularly energy-related products. However, possibility challenges tensions still evident. suggest three inter-related areas ongoing reflection. First, there may value balancing desire minimal intervention, technology neutral styles policy, need policy that clear, long-term impactful. In some cases, more targeted policies particular actors or emergent technologies, also justified. Second, increased clarity broader objectives including relative prioritisation economic, social environmental objectives, help industry make long term investments consistent kind deep innovation which potential. Third, it worth reflecting how above issues combination can leveraged into global leadership strategy, consideration robustness different strategies within emerging dynamics.