Trajectories of Adaptation: A Retrospectus for Future Dynamics

摘要: Sustainable adaptation to climate change needs be assessed beyond the present time and location include way that current forms of might influence future response options. An analysis past dynamics adaptation, what we call “trajectories,” hold key understanding how adaptive outcomes responses stress constrain or open avenues adaptation. Adaptation research often focuses on particular actions, technologies, institutions which may positively these relationships in order build resilience reduce vulnerability. However, are complex behave unexpected ways. There is no simple cause effect, but rather actions modified transmitted through a web linkages feedbacks both physical social. This complexity challenges our ability predict outcome there remain gaps system interactions would permit more accurate assessment development trajectories. The work presented here an vulnerability dryland farmers Northeast Brazil over four decades. analytical framework, links biophysical characteristics with socio-economic context indicators, permits captures dynamic relationship capacities consequent changes trajectories provides foundation for assumptions about human behavior environment.