Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Tehran’s Historical Earthquakes Trends

摘要: Iran is one of the most seismically active regions globe. The metropolis Tehran located at southern foothills Alborz Mountains that are northern branch Alpine-Himalayan orogeny in Iran. extremely high density population concentrated (with more than 12 million inhabitants) coupled with fragility houses and life-lines, highlight urgency a reliable assessment fault activity this city. Three main zones exist vicinity Tehran: North fault; Mosha Eyvanekey- Kahrizak fault. In paper, total 894 historical earthquakes study area magnitudes over 2.5 Richter were collected since 1900. scenarios considered for faults. each scenario, every earthquake was associated to its relevant fault, spatial temporal analyses done reveal trend activities. First north-south east-west trends verified showed no meaningful trends. Spatial dependence described terms global Moran’s I general G. indices not clustered or spatially correlated. Ripley’s K function determined multiple distances. used extract scenario. results eastern sections all faults majority large have occurred middle It also anticipated section capable generating other region. paper can be useful extracting hazardous areas risk zonation forecasting earthquakes.