Earthquake science and seismic risk reduction

摘要: 1 Modeling earthquakes.- 1.1 Phenomenology.- 1.1.1 The lack of a coherent phenomenology.- 1.2 Retrospective selection bias.- 1.2.1 Using statistics to find the 'truth'.- 1.2.2 Hypothesis testing.- 1.2.3 Data mining and fishing expeditions.- 1.2.4 Post hoc correction optimal retrospective selections.- 1.2.5 safest antidote false discoveries: forward vahdation.- 1.3 Model building.- 1.3.1 Choosing among models.- 1.3.2 Deterministic, complex stochastic cases.- 1.3.3 Complex systems.- 1.4 Prediction.- 1.4.1 Definitions prediction.- 1.5 References.- 2 classical view 2.1 A geologist's 2.1.1 Geology, geomorphology 2.1.2 Paleontology 2.1.3 Petrology 2.1.4 Applied geology seismic hazard.- 2.2 Seismology geodesy.- 2.2.1 Introduction.- 2.2.2 Inversion for Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT).- 2.2.3 Geodetic constraints.- 2.2.4 Space-time history faulting physical implications.- 2.3 Scaling laws 2.3.1 Gutenberg-Richter law.- 2.3.2 Empirical roots 2.3.3 Moment-frequency relation.- 2.4 elastic rebound model its successors.- 2.4.1 time-and slip-predictable 2.4.2 gap hypothesis.- 2.4.3 characteristic earthquake model.- 2.5 Nucleation or not?.- 2.5.1 Is there any evidence nucleation phase?.- 2.5.2 Models hypothetical preparatory process.- 2.5.3 Theoretical 2.6 What is an earthquake? Fracture, slip both?.- 2.6.1 Laboratory-based hypotheses.- 2.6.2 Stick-slip friction.- 2.6.3 Fracture mechanics.- 2.6.4 Damage 2.7 Stress: basic yet unknown quantity.- 2.7.1 Stress in Earth's crust.- 2.8 Earthquake energy balance.- 2.8.1 function.- 2.8.2 Earthquakes as three stage 2.8.3 size earthquake.- 2.9 3 Physics systems: appHcations 3.1 Phase transitions, criticality, self-similarity.- 3.1.1 Subcriticality supercriticality.- 3.1.2 Universality.- 3.2 Scale invariance: analytical approach.- 3.3 geometrical 3.3.1 Measuring object's fractal dimension.- 3.3.2 Multifractals.- 3.3.3 empirical origin fractahty.- 3.3.4 Deterministic low-dimensional chaos: hope predictability?.- 3.4 Characterizing scale-invariant 3.4.1 Log-log plots.- 3.4.2 Wavelets.- 3.5 scale invariant 3.5.1 Percolation.- 3.5.2 Cellular automata.- 3.5.3 SOC.- 3.6 power fractality.- 3.6.1 artifacts reality.- 3.6.2 Do always mean invariance?.- 3.6.3 General features self-organizing cellular automata earth- quake 3.7 Problems applying CA models 3.8 Dynamical 3.8.1 Intermittent criticality.- 3.8.2 Power law evolution before failure - Voight's 3.9 Statistical 3.10 Implications predictability.- 3.11 4 Time-independent 4.1 Seismic Hazard assessment site effects evaluation at regional scale.- 4.1.1 hazard estimates.- 4.1.2 Site estimates: how precise schould they be?.- 4.1.3 Conclusions.- 4.2 USGS partners: approaches estimating probabilities.- 4.2.1 Basic principles.- 4.2.2 recurrence rates national international maps.- 4.2.3 San Francisco Bay region.- 4.2.4 likelihood Southern California.- 4.2.5 New Madrid Zone.- 4.2.6 Foreshocks aftershocks.- 4.2.7 4.3 5 Time-dependent estimates forecasts, their uncertainties.- 5.1 research on 5.1.1 Physics, recurrence, 5.1.2 triggering.- 5.1.3 5.2 Probabilistic forecasting seismicity.- 5.2.1 Long-term 5.2.2 Short-term 5.2.3 Experimental short-term forecasts Western Pacific.- 5.2.4 5.2.5 5.3 chance earthquake?.- 5.3.1 Interpreting probability.- 5.3.2 forecast.- 5.3.3 from past.- 5.3.4 5.4 6 Gathering new data.- 6.1 Space 6.1.1 observables space 6.1.2 Reference system deformation concepts.- 6.1.3 observing networks.- 6.1.4 An introduction SAR imaging interferometry.- 6.1.5 digital elevation 6.1.6 Differential 6.1.7 Permanent scatterers.- 6.1.8 Integration GPS data: example 6.2 Paleoseismic 6.2.1 Coastal indicators coseismic vertical movements.- 6.2.2 Case studies.- 6.2.3 6.3 7 risk mitigation.- 7.1 Greek case study.- 7.1.1 Greece.- 7.1.2 Activities mitigation current experience.- 7.1.3 Risk policies.- 7.1.4 Contribution 7.1.5 Concluding remarks.- 7.2 Istanbul 7.2.1 Background general considerations.- 7.2.2 Active tectonics 7.2.3 assessments.- 7.2.4 Vulnerabihty analysis.- 7.2.5 building population.- 7.2.6 7.3 8 prediction public policy.- 8.1 8.1.1 Why should we care now?.- 8.1.2 Ethical 8.1.3 8.1.4 Proposals research.- 8.2 Views social scientists.- 8.2.1 Report NAS Panel 1975.- 8.2.2 Social science 8.2.3 Costs benefits 8.3 U.S. program.- 8.3.1 Current Federal State laws.- 8.3.2 NEPEC.- 8.3.3 Parkfield experiment.- 8.4 Japan's 8.4.1 forecast 'Tokai earthquake'.- 8.4.2 System 8.4.3 Public perception.- 8.5 Pubhc reactions predictions.- 8.5.1 Codes practice 8.5.2 Publicly announced 8.5.3 Common features.- 8.5.4 Countermeasures.- 8.6 Discussion conclusion.- 8.7 Acknowledgments.- Addresses principal contributors.