Correlated probabilistic analysis of the excavation times and costs in tunneling

摘要: A new calculation procedure, called PACT, is presented for the probabilistic analysis of construction times and costs tunneling. Once tunnel strength divided into homogeneous sections, it necessary that all operations on critical path quantities materials used each previously identified classes are described in analytical terms. selection made from parameters show a certain degree uncertainty. standard deviation distribution defined these parameters. The final result identification probability ellipses with reliability. define total field variability procedure was successfully applied to pilot Italian section 13-km long alpine tunnel. It proved possible obtain joined description as evaluation 95 elementary parameters, 25 which considered ones because uncertainties their estimation.