The influence of ethnic segregation and school mobility in primary education on high school dropout : evidence from regression discontinuity at a contextual tipping point

摘要: This paper investigates the influence of ethnic composition and school mobility at primary school-level on propensity to drop out high school. Using rich neighbourhood administrative data, we observe that (i) frequent movers have a 2.6 times higher likelihood early leaving; (ii) relationship between share nonwestern minority students (in school) leaving is non-linear; (iii) non-western peers moderated by student’s own ethnicity. polynomial regression discontinuity methods, ‘contextual tipping point’ in peer linked discontinuous break predicted probability dropout. The conditional dropout increases 5.4 percent points 8.0 if ‘school stable’ native Dutch are enrolled schools exceed contextual point 77.7 students.