Short-term multiple power type prediction based on deep learning

作者: Ran Wei , Qirui Gan , Huiquan Wang , Yue You , Xin Dang

DOI: 10.1007/S13198-019-00885-8

关键词:

摘要: This paper proposes a method based on 4-layer deep neural network model by stacked denoising auto-encoders to analyze four types of power data: current (I), voltage (U), active (P) and reactive (Q). We collect 7 days household data. In the beginning, prediction accuracy rate can reach 82.45% when 1-h historical data are used predict for following 5 min. order optimize parameters this model, over 3-month period collected. The is 95.52% three-day next hour. Finally, supplemental experiments added verify that change has greater impact model. set as training set. Extract 2 weeks from 3 months data, 2-week divided into two test sets. effect 7:00 in morning 24:00 evening, 0:00 evening studied. rates 95.05% 99.02%, respectively. It shows higher with lower frequency consumption than consumption, we prove better 3-layer, 5-layer 7-layer models.

参考文章(17)
PETER TURNEY, Theoretical analyses of cross-validation error and voting in instance-based learning Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence. ,vol. 6, pp. 331- 360 ,(1994) , 10.1080/09528139408953793
Maria Grazia De Giorgi, Antonio Ficarella, Marco Tarantino, Assessment of the benefits of numerical weather predictions in wind power forecasting based on statistical methods Energy. ,vol. 36, pp. 3968- 3978 ,(2011) , 10.1016/J.ENERGY.2011.05.006
T. Yalcinoz, U. Eminoglu, Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks Energy Conversion and Management. ,vol. 46, pp. 1393- 1405 ,(2005) , 10.1016/J.ENCONMAN.2004.07.005
FRANK EMMERT-STREIB, MATTHIAS DEHMER, Nonlinear time series prediction based on a power-law noise model International Journal of Modern Physics C. ,vol. 18, pp. 1839- 1852 ,(2007) , 10.1142/S0129183107011765
P Jorge Santos, A Gomes Martins, AJ Pires, None, On the use of reactive power as an endogenous variable in short‐term load forecasting International Journal of Energy Research. ,vol. 27, pp. 513- 529 ,(2003) , 10.1002/ER.892
Kevin Allix, Tegawendé F. Bissyandé, Quentin Jérome, Jacques Klein, Radu State, Yves Le Traon, Large-scale machine learning-based malware detection: confronting the "10-fold cross validation" scheme with reality conference on data and application security and privacy. pp. 163- 166 ,(2014) , 10.1145/2557547.2557587
Kasra Mohammadi, Shahaboddin Shamshirband, Por Lip Yee, Dalibor Petković, Mazdak Zamani, Sudheer Ch, Predicting the wind power density based upon extreme learning machine Energy. ,vol. 86, pp. 232- 239 ,(2015) , 10.1016/J.ENERGY.2015.03.111
I. Moghram, S. Rahman, Analysis and evaluation of five short-term load forecasting techniques IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. ,vol. 4, pp. 1484- 1491 ,(1989) , 10.1109/59.41700
Benjamin Letham, Cynthia Rudin, David Madigan, Eugene Kogan, A Learning Theory Framework for Sequential Event Prediction and Association Rules Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Center. ,(2012)