Assessment of the value of long range weather forecasts in wheat harvest management

摘要: Abstract Quality losses from weather damaged wheat cost the Australian industry on average around $A30M annually. These are higher in north-eastern region than other regions of belt because spring and summer dominant rainfall coinciding with harvest. If a wet season can be predicted, growers could reduce grain by strategies such as early harvesting, contract additional drying harvesting at faster rate. In Australia, long-range forecasting is possible analysis sea surface temperatures air-pressure differences between Tahiti (17°S 150°w) Darwin (12°S 131°E) identified Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Using monthly SOI data since 1890, this paper examines relationship during harvest period Australia. A simulation model developed earlier was used to investigate value seasonal forecasts decision aid management. The results show that status May gives reasonable indication above- or below-average following (October-December). This information enable minimize quality damage altering their management practices according variations rainfall. involve high-moisture it or, use when outlook for high. producer predicted $A12ha-1 per year through improvements reduced losses.