A validation process for probabilistic production costing programs

摘要: Validation of power production cost forecasts is addressed. Such programs cannot be validated by simply comparing predictions to outcomes. EPRI's chronological simulation program, BENCHMARK, can used in a Monte Carlo mode produce approximate distributions. An exhaustive enumeration experiment conducted measure their accuracy. example given for system with seven thermal units. Three price scenarios were included on the replacement generation shortfalls. Chronological such as BENCHMARK also calibrated when deterministic match operating policy. The procedure then validate costing results large systems some assurance. Cumulative probability distribution curves produced this process present useful information decision-making. >