The Impact of Including Water Constraints on Food Production within a CGE Framework

摘要: This research explores the long-term relationship between water resources, irrigated land use change and crop production within a computable general equilibrium modeling framework. The approach is developed on variant of MIT Emissions Prediction Policy Analysis (EPPA) model that describes three agriculture sectors–crops, livestock managed forestry–five types–cropland, pasture land, forest natural grass land–and conversion among these types. I further develop this framework by describing as aggregate crops grown non-irrigated cropland. Water through parameterization regional irrigable supply curves, limit to cropland thus constrain production. Land change, dynamics demand are investigated with new structure. Non-irrigated found be expanding faster than However, regionally, competition from biofuels for may drive expansion in Regarding demand, most regions withdrawing very small share their renewable resource. Crop levels compared results does not include constraints. Global declines amount significant effect observed Middle East where constraints have severely restricted area which can expand. result highlights importance considering resource experience, or might shortages water. Thesis Supervisor: John M. Reilly Title: Senior Lecturer, Sloan School Management Reader: Kenneth Strzepek Research Scientist, Center Change Science