Potential for Zika virus to establish a sylvatic transmission cycle in the Americas

摘要: Zika virus (ZIKV) originated and continues to circulate in a sylvatic transmission cycle between non-human primate hosts arboreal mosquitoes tropical Africa. Recently ZIKV invaded the Americas, where it poses threat human health, especially pregnant women their infants. Here we examine risk that will establish focusing on Brazil. We review natural history of present mathematical dynamic model assess probability establishment primates and/or other mammals mosquito vectors Brazil is home multiple species potentially capable transmission, though direct assessment host competence (ability mount viremia sufficient infect feeding mosquito) vector become infected with disseminate transmit upon subsequent feedings) New World lacking. Modeling reveals high across large range biologically plausible parameters. Probability dependent population sizes birthrates force infection, but network as few 6,000 10,000 supporting cycle. Research susceptibility monkeys or small ZIKV, Aedes, Sabethes, Haemagogus for geographic these urgently needed. A would make future elimination efforts Americas practically impossible, paints dire situation epidemiology ending ongoing outbreak congenital syndrome.