Temporal Course of 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Outbreak in West Africa Elucidated through Morbidity and Mortality Data: A Tale of Three Countries

摘要: The explosive outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa 2014 appeared to have lessened 2015, but potentially continues be a global public health threat. A simple mathematical model, the Richards is utilized gauge temporal variability spread terms its reproduction number R and changes via detection epidemic waves turning points during outbreaks three most severely affected countries; namely, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone. results reveal multiple infection each these countries, varying lengths from little more than one week month. All countries exhibit marginally fluctuating numbers June-October before gradually declining. Although high mobility between neighboring populations across borders, exhibits decidedly different patterns. Guinea had maintained consistently low transmissibility hence has smallest reported cases. Liberia highest level transmission October, remained since, with no detectable wave after New Year. Leone declining since still generated up mid-March cumulated largest cases—exceeding that combined. Analysis indicates that, despite massive amount international relief intervention efforts, persisting regions waves, albeit sparsely at much lower beginning 2015.