Judgment under uncertainty; a probabilistic evaluation framework for decision-making about sanitation systems in low-income countries

摘要: Sanitation, as described by the World Health Organization (WHO), refers to provisions of facilities and services for safe disposal human urine faeces. On outset 21st century, 40% world’s inhabitants do not have access sanitation still rely on a bucket, bush or backstreet excretion. Technically, all options that are required deal with global problem seem been already developed. However, challenge remains in selection implementation technologies way desirable outcomes would be resulted. Some decision-making support tools developed so far address this assisting decision-makers selecting appropriate technologies. While is about considering likelihood uncertain events, most existing evaluation approaches complex task predicting evaluating probabilities reduced simple judgmental operations. Forinstance, often performed based best represent system, no little regard factors limit predictive accuracy. This thesis adopts new approach taking into account real world examples from executed develops probabilistic framework which assessed specific occur practice. Absolute judgments replaced probable assessments, tries keep its distance making certain. Although there may hidden consensus quantification occurrence various always possible, some methods presented assessment criteria. Moreover, does only focus decisions, but also channel decisions negative through measures could taken improve performance options. By applying low-income unplanned slum settlement Nyalenda Kisumu, Kenya (based limited available data region literature) it indicated while option known fulfilling certain definition, revealed local conditions likely allow expected outcome practice result priority among other The necessity monitoring post-evaluation implemented projects order sufficient feedback improvement future highlighted.