Reliable Identification of Declining Populations in an Uncertain World

摘要: Assessments of extinction risk based on population declines are widely used, yet scientists have little quantitative understanding their reliability. Incorrectly classifying whether a is declining or not can lead to inappropriate conservation actions management measures, with potentially profound societal costs. Here we evaluate key causes misclassification decline status and assess the reliability 20 metrics using stochastic model simulate time series abundance sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). We show that between-year variability in productivity (process variation) and, lesser extent, estimates (observation error) important unreliable identification status. found all available data, rather than just most recent three generations, consistently improved assessments. The approach outlined here improve assessments, thereby reducing concerns may impede use for exploited taxa such as marine fishes.