Multi-event capture-recapture modeling of host-pathogen dynamics among European rabbit populations exposed to myxoma and Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Viruses: common and heterogeneous patterns

摘要: Host–pathogen epidemiological processes are often unclear due both to their complexity and over-simplistic approaches used quantify them. We applied a multi-event capture–recapture procedure on two years of data from three rabbit populations test hypotheses about the effects survival of, dynamics host immunity to, myxoma virus Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (MV RHDV). Although shared same climatic management conditions, MV RHDV varied greatly among them; seroprevalences were positively related density in one population, but seroprevalence was negatively another. In addition, (i) juvenile most seropositivity, (ii) seropositives never had considerably higher survival, (iii) seroconversion seropositivity more likely than reverse. suggest affects depending trade-offs antibody protection, immunosuppression lethality. Negative might be greater juveniles immature immune system. Also, while directly through hemorrhagic syndrome, lack direct lethal means that interactions influencing complex. Multi-event modeling allowed us patterns host–pathogen otherwise difficult discern. Such an approach offers promising tool shed light causative mechanisms.